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    CAP radar, cell phone analysis teams narrow search for Idaho crash site

    December 5, 2013

    An example of the radar forensics product produced by CAP’s National Radar Analysis Team. The red and green dots indicate different types of radar signals.


    When a single-engine plane goes down in the continental U.S. Civil Air Patrol, the nation’s cell phone and radar tracking expert, is certain to be involved. The mission – reduce the search area from thousands of square miles to the actual crash site or within a couple of square miles – is urgent, because reducing the crash-to-rescue time saves lives. 

    Searchers for a single-engine plane believed downed in snowy, mountainous central Idaho are relying on CAP’s cutting-edge radar analysis as they try to find the California family of five aboard the missing Beech Bonanza.
     
    Lt. Col. John Henderson of CAP’s 10-member National Radar Analysis Team was able to detect and map the plane’s radar track until just before the aircraft apparently began its descent Sunday. Piloted by Dale Smith of San Jose, Calif., and carrying his son, his son’s wife, his daughter and her fiance, the Bonanza was bound from Baker City, Ore, to Butte, Mont. 
     
    The Radar Analysis Team worked hand-in-hand with CAP’s two-man Cell Phone Forensics Team, and everyone’s analysis of the clues and data led to the same conclusions.
     
    “The cell phone data stopped about a minute before the plane dropped off of radar,” said Maj. Justin Ogden, a CAP cellular forensics expert. “Our data correlated with the radar analysis team’s regarding the plane’s location at that time.”
     
    CAP’s radar analysis track record is impressive. “It can be extremely accurate,” said Henderson. “Over 90 percent of the time we narrow the search area based on forensics information. We’ve come within 65 feet of where a crash occurred and sometimes miles. It depends on the radar environment.” 
     
    In 13 years, Henderson estimated, he’s participated in more than 600 missions with “well over 150 finds” and about 45 lives saved – but the Idaho mission involves some serious obstacles.
     
    The Bonanza was flying above extremely rugged, snow-covered terrain, both elements that can interfere with radar tracking. As a result, the track ended when it was still “well above ground,” said Henderson, a CAP volunteer member for more than 20 years. 
     
    That means the plane “could have traveled miles” before landing, he said. “We just don’t know what he did after we lost radar coverage.” 
     
    “How he crashed and the snowfall are huge factors,” Henderson said, adding, “the snowfall can cover the crash site.”
     
    Without radar analysis or cell phone forensics, searches for a downed plane can prove daunting. “Pilots would be just flying around trying to spot wreckage,” Henderson said.
     
    Like his fellow 61,000-plus CAP members, Henderson is a volunteer. His day job, though, is an important part of his expertise – he’s a radar analyst for the U.S. Air Force’s 84th Radar Evaluation Squadron at the Western Air Defense Sector at McChord Air Force Base, Wash.
     
    In addition to Henderson’s record of success, Ogden estimates he’s been involved in more than 30 saves and hundreds of finds during the more than 400 missions he’s participated in during more than seven years in cell phone forensics, which relies on data from cellular towers.
     
    That source of information wasn’t available in the Smiths’ case, said Ogden, who like Henderson has been in CAP for more than two decades. Because of the terrain and the remoteness of the location, “there’s no chance of getting a cell phone signal when you’re on the ground near where the plane dropped off radar,” he said.
     
    When such limitations exist, a search “can be extremely difficult,” Henderson said. “It can be like sifting through and trying to find a (certain) piece of sand.”
     
    Idaho Wing Commander Col. Mike Vorachek said CAP is providing high-bird communication links today, while four helicopters searched for the missing plane. “We’re yielding our airspace to the helicopters, because they can get so much lower,” he said. 
     
    On Tuesday and Wednesday, Vorachek said CAP aircrews flew more than 20 hours over the search area.
     
     
     
     
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